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Technology Stocks : Corel Corp.

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To: Alomex who wrote (277)5/19/1997 1:28:00 AM
From: Scott Volmar   of 9798
 
Alomex, the items added to the lists were good. But let's cut Dr. Cowpland a little slack about the earnings projections. From the earliest days that Corel began discussions with Novell about purchasing the beleaguered WordPerfect Group, the Novell Suite was in a freefall in sales. All revenue and earnings projections Corel made from the point of purchase forward were reasonable based on sales at that point in time. The problem Corel encountered was they did not correctly foresee that WordPerfect's revenue was in "avalanche" mode. Microsoft's office suite was being accepted as the only standard for "officeware," and WordPerfect's demise was almost certain. Consumers, corporate and otherwise, would not buy it. To complicate matters worse, WordPerfect 7 was continually being delayed, even prior to Corel's purchase. It was Novell that was responsible for this decline. I suspect that if Dr. Cowpland had it to do over again, he might not have purchased the WordPerfect Group had he realized the magnitude of the avalanche. However, WordPerfect had talent, and Corel had talent. They quickly put out the Windows 95 suite and proved credibility. Its almost miraculous that Suite 7 has been so popular in the retail sector since its release. With this success, Suite 8 is likely to make a sizable incursion into the corporate market. (There's another "positive spin.") The bottom line of effectiveness of any "positive spin" is earnings. However, it takes time to prepare the soil, plant the seed, nurture the tree, and finally, pick the fruit. (Earnings) The decline of WordPerfect was no accident. Even the speed of the decline was no accident. It came as a result of complacent management for two to three years prior to the decline. They had the best DOS word processor ever--so good that too many people still use it. But when the computing community shifted to Windows, WordPerfect and Novell management did not act with the vision and swiftness necessary to maintain their front-runner status. They were literally blind sided by the paradigm shift from character based Dos to Wondersoft's (its Sunday) Windows. Similarly, Dr. Cowpland and Corel deserve two years of proper nurturing to deliver the fruit to the equally deserving shareholders. I have a feeling the fruit is going to taste pretty good. (Another spin.) Ocean waves are not created by moving water per se. An outside force acts on each little water molecule which causes the molecule to stimulate the one next to it to behave in the same manner. Have you ever participated in the "wave" phenomenon in a football or soccer stadium? When an individual in the stadium stands and raises his or her arms in a wavelike motion, other people start doing the same thing. By the time "wave" reaches you, its almost irresistible "not" to participate. The same can be true for "positive spins." If enough people in a community promote something or someone, its almost irresistible to not go along. I would hope that Corel could "stand up" and stimulate enough "positive spins" to get the computing community to start spinning positively around their products. The results will be EARNINGS, the only real "positive spin." Up, Up, & Away! (I'm dizzy now.) Scott
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