Are you sure. I get a reading of over 100% for Yahoo! and over 50% return for eBay since then. Amazon is -25%. Dial that time frame back two months (eBay's birth) to a year for the others and the returns get really, really sweet.
I'm sorry, I should not throw numbers around. I was speaking generally. EBAY reached a high just above $50 near the end of 12/98 and is around $60 now. Amazon which breached $60 then is $40 now, while YHOO, the big winner here topped at $70 in Dec 98 and is over $120 now. Collectively, a share of each,near their Dec 98 highs would have cost a total of $180 and be worth $220 now.
I was being generous. When was the revised GG published? I checked AMZN and it showed 10/99 (I do not have my copy handy). That's when the manual first mentioned Godzillas, so I should have used 10/99 or 11/99 as my start date, not 12/98. In 10/99 the prices were higher, and a basket of the 3 at $220 for a share of each would have been a possible buy point.
Yes, I agree, roll back the date a year and the returns are sweet. But you can't do that if you rely on a book. The book looks at the sweet returns and writes about them. You read it, but the market changes, and it is too late.
I don't think we really disagree here. You are working so hard to find tomorrow's winners because you agree with me. The book provides the framework, we must continuously refine and adjust the framework to assist us in a dynamic market.
StockHawk |
