Hi Tp,
As a SCMR long, I'd like to believe your spin on accelerating standards being good for SCMR, in spite of the ODSI setback. Let's hope so.
Since the market likes to climb a wall of worry, let me add one more piece to the puzzle here:
Message 14293665
What I see of significance to the post is that Williams (WCG) is being faced with the conflict of an intransigent bond market and major network buildout expenses projected through the end of 2001. Since WCG now represents about 85% of SCMR's revenue, this does seem to be something of a red flag. I realize that the 360 Networks deal goes a way to ameliorate this customer concentration, but I also seem to recall that CIEN got caught in a real vise in late '98 when it couldn't spread its sales quickly enough beyond WCOM and FON.
If I were SCMR, I would not be worried about the other players in the article since they (i.e. SCMR) productize faster than Ciena and have the optical products lacking at CSCO and JNPR.
Rigthto, I see your point here, and it is well taken. My concern now would be not internal weakness at SCMR, but what I perceive to be a growing concern in the bond markets regarding the networkers and carriers. Particularly in view of the irrational sums of money being thrown at UMTS systems in Europe at present. As one wag pointed out to me the other day, the German government collected $46B in the recently completed UMTS auctions, and subsequently, their equity holdings in DT were diminished by an even more gargantuan amount. Robbing Peter and not quite paying Paul. :)
Comments welcomed, Ray |
