Be careful using average numbers from last Q.
Last Q, Westell CPE revenues went to 61M from 16M, a very rapid growth rate. From the conference call, the biggest ramp was in June. Neither Alcatel or Efficient had as large a percentage increase over the quarter.
Therefore the market share numbers were significantly higher for Westell in June, than they were in April. I wouldn't be surprised that Westell had over a 30% market share in June.
If you haven't read some of the posts by capt_jack on the Yahoo WSTL thread, and my commentary (under zinfan94) since last Friday, I suggest you do so. If the capt is correct, Westell made major inroads into the SBC account last Q. SBC will be by far the largest customer in the US for CPE equipment, likely accounting for about half the total market. Comments by the capt, and recent comments from analysts, indicate that Westell could now be the largest supplier of ADSL modems to SBC. Westell is already the largest ADSL modem supplier to Verizon, the second largest customer in the US.
This is a good news/bad news/good news story. The bigger SBC orders really drove the great June results, but a temporary slowdown in SBC installations hurt July and August orders. But from now until the end of the year, SBC is planning to install 550k DSL lines, versus approximately 450k this year so far. Next year, SBC's Project Pronto will kick in fully, and the installation rate will be significantly higher that this year.
Fasten your seatbelt, its gonna be a bumpy ride. But by the end of the year, we should be soaring.
Paul |
