Dan,
Well, you've handed out a lot of questions.
Where do I start...!
Remember..., watching these charts has caused my attention span to narrow down considerably and at this point your post is a lot to handle. <smile>
Weekly Nasdaq Forks
#1 Handle week 4 Oct 99 -- big spread, notice the lower tine action
#2 Handle week 1 May 00 -- big spread, upper tine broken, market must return to that tine in next bar or the fork is negated
#3 Handle week 4 May 00 -- spread 3 wk July-1 wk Aug
Market is at the 50% retrace from March and May high/low
Pitchforks are a very intuitive process as well as a mechanical one, they use both the right and left side of the brain. They are open to interpretation. On large forks I try to find the one which contains the market within it's tines. For that matter in any period for finding the active forks.
Forks are dynamic and the market bounces between the median lines of many active forks as well as their outside tines. If you look at all of them, then Yes, you see a lot of noise. (There are smaller interday forks at work as well.) GZ has taken to using just the front fork and maybe one other dominant fork at any one time, he rarely uses any that are a year old. The secrete is watching them long enough to gain confidence in their ability to attracted and repel the market and picking those that are attuned with your style of trading.
Daily Forks
The largest fork I'm using [handle 10/18/99 - big spread], notice lower tine.
But along that parabolic rise there are a series of handles for the March and May high/low spread [12/1/99 - 12/15/99 - 1/31/00 - 2/16/00], anyone could be used if it captured the market bar patterns.
The parabolic decline also created a series of handles to be used with the spread [5/24 low-7/17 high].
I use the shoulder high of 5/16 as the handle and dominant fork for that spread.
The last spread [7/17 high-8/3 low] and the final daily forks.
The handles I've chosen are [5/24-7/16] both are very strong and either one could become dominant within this time period.
Right now 7/16 has the market on it's median line and along with the 50% Fib retrace, suggests an area to watch for a market reversal of some proportion. If the market fails to return to the median line within one day and moves higher then the handle of 5/24 would become dominant. So today and tomorrow are important areas for the fork and bar patterns. For 5 days the bars have been captured by the 7/16 median line, it should move somewhere shortly.
It is a matter of interpretation of the forks, fibs and chart bars.
Another point....do not forget the 5/16 fork and it's upper tine at 4200±..! This could be reached in a few days.
This 5/16 fork might be the strongest of the bunch...!
So you tell me..., which is the dominant fork..?
One last point.
The original work that Alan Andrews did with the Pitchfork was based on working with the Elliot Wave Theories. Pivots were directly related to the different stages of the Ewaves....you would have five forks going. I gave up Elliot Waves, because the forks matched my personality better and more clearly defined the markets for my particular style of trading.
Now I've matched your lengthy post... That's it...!
I hope this answers your question..?
Chip |
