The long term trend is towards the "pocket calculatorization" of the industry. Machine price under $200, includes all electronics, and built in display, no user serviceable parts, no user installed parts. When it breaks, throw it away and buy a newer model, which acts almost identically to the old one. This trend will hurt the CPU makers, such as AMD and INTC. But it will destroy the box makers, as the CPU makers cut them out of the production loop.
I think your argument is related to the "cpu's are getting faster, but consumers will never need that kind of speed" arguments.
I disagree with view, but only if I'm allowed to accept one assumption as true.
Back in the 70's, people used to ask what does a consumer need a computer for anyway? Later, you had games, and word processors. I remember for a while there used to be dedicated word processor machines. As computers get faster, people always look at the current applications, and say that oh computers are way more powerful than you need already, and someone should make a simple, cheap, easy to use, dedicated device to do some certian task. Now the rage is "web pads." But you get a the web pad and it can't do java. In a few months you'll get a web pad that can, so next it will be streaming video. after that VRML, then you'll want to play games, two way video, ect.
As long as software keeps inovating, computers will always dominate the electronics market. Nothing will ever be as versitile as a computer. If you assume that inovation will continue, then CPU companies are a good investment. |
