AWARE Message Board - Msg: 14316396

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Technology Stocks : AWARE

AWRE 1.810

-2.2%

Jan 30 9:30 AM EST

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To: Perry P. who wrote (715)	9/1/2000 12:47:16 PM
From: StockDon	Read Replies (1) of 2404

I think that Alcatel's overall DSLAM market share probably would have decreased from last year without the addition of Newbridge. Cisco, Nokia and others have made significant strides in the past year which most likely have eroded some of Alcatel's DSLAM market share. While we are on the subject of Alcatel, here are some of my thoughts on Alcatel and their ADSL chip problems. Some of this may be old information but I'm stating it again anyway. At this time I think it is unlikely that Alcatel Mirco will leave the ADSL chip business as some have suggested. If they end up doing that I don't see it happening for quite a while. I still believe that it is highly likely that Alcatel will buy ADSL chips from third party vendors, of which ADI is the most likely candidate, and they may buy from more than one vendor. We have been hearing that Alcatel is having supply problems and these problems appear to be continuing. The supply problems would be the number one reason that Alcatel would buy third party ADSL chipsets. Also, Alcatel Micro has fallen behind on development as they were the last company to announce a quad-port ADSL chipset, which I believe may be just beginning to ship. From what I hear Alcatel's quad-port appears to lag ADI's and other quad-ports in performance. Most ADSL chip vendors, excluding ADI, have experienced significant problems with their quad-ports. As one person in the industry told me not too long ago, these companies shipping octal port press releases can't even ship out an actual working quad-port yet. It is also still likely that Alcatel will eventually spin off their Micro unit, which I believe will make it even more likely for Alcatel to buy third party ADSL chipsets from companies like ADI. One person I spoke with referred to Alcatel as more of dumping the Micro unit than actually spinning off the Micro unit. No matter what plays out, I think ADI's ADSL chipset market share will stay very strong for years to come. StockDon

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