Piffer OT - And Other Assorted Nuts Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Piffer OT - And Other Assorted Nuts

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To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (50887)	9/1/2000 12:51:05 PM
From: Original Mad Dog	Read Replies (1) of 63513

But with msft's giant cap, whoa, there is literally no way to win. I was already preparing to refute your ORCL comparison when you did it for me. The trouble with MSFT in my mind has some comparisons to what AT&T has been going through. Both had a strong revenue stream from an entrenched business that was once (in MSFT's case currently still is) a monopoly. The trouble is that in both cases, the monopoly came under assault from two fronts: legal and technological. With AT&T those two assaults occurred two decades apart: they lost their monopoly, and then technology took away the consumer long distance business revenue stream two decades later. With MSFT, the two are occurring virtually simultaneously. I have no quibbles with T's strategy of remaking itself into an information provider through cable as well as phone lines. They had to do something. But take a look at what has happened to the stock in the meantime. Not just to the stock, but to the company. The employees themselves are confused, and it is hurting delivery of services to customers even in the businesses which are continuing. MSFT also faces employee defections and lack of focus as they enter a transition period. And you are absolutely correct when you say about MSFT that "they should have willingly broken up their company for business reasons in 1998." Because the operating system dominance, which MSFT leveraged (unlawfully tied???) into dominance in applications software and Web browsers, is being eclipsed by changes in the marketplace and technology. The lawsuit is just accelerating the rate at which the past is being taken away from MSFT, and diverting management's attention from the real task at hand. Take a look at T's chart over the past year. MSFT's chart for the next year may very well look the same. .Net and voiceweb are MSFT's version of AT&T becoming a cable company. But investors are not patient beasts these days, and they will likely exit and await signs that the rebuilding is working before they reenter. MAD DOG

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