Random Recollections From 1999.
As by now many of you know, my involvement with the market is episodic. In recent years, one of the longer interludes between market episodes was from November ’98 to mid June ’99. Now that’s not to say that I never thought of the market during that time, but that it was tertiary at best in my thoughts. I do recall three events in the spring of 1999 that penetrated the fog veiling my market perception. One was the spike in the shares of Netb@nk that caused me to log into my account and sell most of my shares. The second was deciding (on a whim) to watch the PBS Nightly Business Report. When the NYSE new highs and lows flashed onto the screen my response was “My God, I’d better give some attention to my account before this fall”. The third item occurred on my annual spring trip to Anza Borrego. In El Zero (a.k.a. El Centro), I noticed while reading a newspaper in a sidewalk stand that Qualcomm had settled with Ericsson. My response was “Now that is interesting”.
So in mid June ‘99, after returning from a trip to explore Southwest Indians (past and present) and in response to item two above, I logged onto my account (happy that I could remember the password). I printed the positions and returned to finishing some “loose ends” prior to delving into the market. That afternoon, I settled into an easy chair and started perusing the alphabetize list of positions. ABC – ah yes, good ole Cisco. Now isn’t that great (Cisco, already my largest holding had grown nicely). On down through the alphabet with a bigger and bigger smile on my face. Yes it was true that time (not timing) was the high road to wealth. Almost without exception my holdings were up. In fact about the only disappointment was the relative increase of some. JKI – there’s Intel, nice. LMN – yeah , glad I sold that Netb@nk . OPQ – uh…uh…uh…<long pause finally followed by a gasp (I had stopped breathing)>.
Instead of breathing, I was starring at the line beginning with QCOM. I was having a Q-moment. A Q-moment is a subset of market-moments. Those times when the market does something so spectacularly unexpected that you do a quintuple take. Once my brain became re-engaged thoughts raced through. Lookie there, there’s been a split. And even with a split Look at that price.
To understand my next reaction you must understand my previous experience. Once because Cisco had grown to such a large percentage of my portfolio, and believing the hype about diversification (diworsefication), I had sold some (only a little) of my Cisco. This trade was on my Top Ten Worse Trades To Learn From list. I, also, had held CIEN as it ran up to 90+ with the pending Tellabs merger. I sold some but held onto too large a share and watched the price decline to about 8 as I recall. Now even though the price recovered (even by the summer of 1999 and has now soared) didn’t change the fact that holding from 90+ to 8 was a mistake. This trade (or lack of one) was also on that Top Ten list. So, after my heartbeat had returned to a reduced but not yet normal rate, my question was: “Is Q a Cisco or a Ciena?”.
Moreover I thought I knew how to get the answer. Go to SI, find my “natural home” (the Buy Range thread) and lookup the latest Greg Powers post. In pursuing this tactic I was shocked by the changes in the “natural home” , but that’s another story (and post). Within a day, I had discovered the G & K thread; within a week, I had change my question to: “Is Q a gorilla or not?”
Now to answer a few questions. Do I still hold Q? You bet, in fact I’ve recently added to my position. Would I be happy if Q’s price exploded next week? Again, you bet. Do I expect that? No way. Are there other positions that would make me more money? Well there certainly were for this year so far, but I’m the patient type. Moreover I’m not “flying blind”. I’ve carefully followed the wireless story and believe there’s a good chance that Q will have a big part in that story. Meanwhile I’m happy spending my time nourishing the other pongids in my care (portfolio). Look at that SEBL, NTAP, I2 …
Hey I even have some RMBS (from ’98).
LL (Lurking Lite – i.e. less stress)
lurqer |
