cuf,
<< The only missing ingredient is verification of its Tornado ... There is a sizeable minority, of which I am a member, that believes Gemstar is currently in the Tornado and is a full fledged young primate >>
Melin, Merlin, wherefore art though Merlin?
Did somebody say, Peru?
You could be absolutely right, Frank.
Using the metrics we apply to Qualcomm, we can say retrospectively that Qualcomm was indeed in tornado well before this thread was even founded, but that fact had not been verified. I did not recognize it till late 1998, and might not have caught it then, if I had not bean analyzing wireless subscriber growth, for noninvestment reasons.
As re Qualcomm, Mr. Market did not start to reward Qualcomm till January 1999 (it crabbed around all through 1998), and it took what we called the defining event (ERICY accord) in March to really jump start the sucker.
Actually, in the case of Qualcomm we have had, IMO, 3 defining events, or at least clear signals of approaching gorillahood.
The first occurred in January 1998, when 3GPP (and ESI/ARIB) selected cdma for it's 3rd generation air interface, virtually guaranteeing that cdma would eventually become the dominant radio interface in the world.
The 2nd occurred in November/December of 1998, when the ITU told Ericsson and Qualcomm in no uncertain terms to come to terms on essential cdma IP and chip rate or there would be no 3G cdma air interface. Ericsson, immediately sent clears signals back that they would compromise on chip rate and cooperate on IP.
The 3rd, was of course, the ERICY accord of March 1999 (backed up by blow out earnings).
GMST, by contrast, has been given better recognition by the market over the last few years, than QCOM received in the few years prior to January 99.
GMST has had 2 events occur, which I would choose to call defining events.
The first was the unexpected announcement of the TVG merger (when almost everybody really expected an IP settlement).
The 2nd was the conclusion of the merger itself.
I personally think that the tornado for GMST will start to be measurable early next year, following the shipments of new generation tv's and set top boxes and related gadgetry this Christmas.
Either way, I got into GMST last October and I'm holding, because I do agree that with the (important) exception that either the tornado has not started, or we can't verify that it has, it sure looks like a potential gorilla, if not a verified gorilla.
I might add that my initial Qualcomm investment was made on January 5, 1999. my timing could not have been more exquisite, but it was not timing and it wasn't an accident.
I had been doing DD on Qualcomm since late 94. I was not then participating in this thread, and did not know of its existence till you wandered over to "Coming of Range", I had read the FM the first week of its publication, practiced the game a bit with "Trader Dave and "Bulldozer" on the SDTI (now RSAS) thread, and reread the FM over the holidays. In addition, I had picked up on the signals coming out of 3GIG & 3GPP, made the decision that Qualcomm was in control of a proprietary open architecture, related the hypergrowth to the tornado, and felt that the fUNCERTAINTYd about Qualcomm's IP would quickly clear.
Now all that is well and good, but, now we are looking at another industry and one that I am much less familiar with.
While I have known what CDMA was for some time, I sure did not know what IPG or EPG were, and might not know now if it were not for this thread.
There are very few gorillas.
The precise start of the tornado is very hard to spot, measure and verify.
Participation in this thread gives an investor a real GORILLA ADVANTAGE!
So GMST is a gorilla, or is likely to be one. It does have all the attributes and either the tornado has started, or it is likely about to start.
Did I just agree with you?
Did I just thank you for starting this thread?
Shucks.
Where's Merlin? I need counsel and advice.
- Eric - |
