Hello Stu,
In no particular order, I would propose the following answers to "What the hell happened?":
1. KLIC push-out annuncement. Rightly or wrongly, and as a big KLIC investor I believe the latter, Mr Market sees KLIC as the canary in the coalmine, ie a warning of trouble ahead for the whole sector.
2. Small-caps still outta favor. In turbulent times, people buy the big names, AMAT, TER, NVLS. Nevermind that ASTX at 15 looks like a potential double mid-term, while AMAT can only dream of that.
3. AMAT's own CC was not seen as stellar, again despite evidence IMO. ASTX is closely tied to the fortunes of AMAT, its biggest single customer. BTW - ASTX managment is trying to address this problem with diversification of product lines and customer base.
4. Many on the Street have so-called quality of earnings issues. As a result 32 cents from ASTX is seen as less reliable and thus less "valuable" than 16 from CSCO.
These are just my two kopeks. They give the lie to the "efficient market" folks who would have you believe everything is in the price. I buy that for IBM, MSFT, where the float and turnover are huge and every analyst under the sun has an opinion and a recommendation.
But for ASTX et al, there are plenty of chances to make money under the radar screens of Wall Street. FWIW I also like ASYT, KLIC and long-time favourite ATMI.
Good luck,
jonathan |
