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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis

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To: Casaubon who wrote (28941)9/3/2000 9:03:36 AM
From: Robert Graham  Read Replies (1) of 42787
 
It depends on the time frame that these tests are occurring in. For instance, in the daily time frame, price can ride a S or R. If it continues to do this, it usually breaks through. But lets say there are two tests separated by several weeks or more that end up confirming S or R. This would actually strengthen the S/R. So successive tests in an abnormally short period of time can have price break through. But tests over a more extended period of time can actually strengthen S/R. Take a look at how long trend lines can last on the daily charts. The intraday time frame is different. I am talking about the 1-min through 15-min that I follow. Trends in this time frame that are defined by trend lines do not last. Usually three touches of a trend line is all it takes to end the trend by breaking through the trend line. This can happen in a relatively short period of time during the day.

As far as the Dow testing resistance three times in two days, I would suspect a pullback. But this does not mean the price cannot sucessfully test and break through the resistance at a later time. Three tests in two days has validated resistance on this series of attempts. But this does not need to have any long term significance. But this in part depends on the price action following these successive tests. For example, if on the daily chart this shows up as a price putting in a good move to resistance followed by a significane pullback for a test at a much later time, this would IMO call attention to the resistance on the chart. IMO this would have the benefit in validating the resistance. So another test would not be necissary to validate this as being a strong resistance. In the minds of traders, a resistance (re)discovered in this way has already proven to be formidable.

Looking at the DJIA chart itself, I see iff price continues to sell off at this point, I would consider that resistance to be strong. So allot depends on what happens at this point. What is itneresting is good short term tops can be put in by the small top that this can turn into.

Just some of my thoughts on S and R.

Bob Graham
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