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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services
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To: Frank who wrote (72213)9/3/2000 10:30:23 AM
From: GREENLAW4-7  Read Replies (3) of 95453
 
I still see OSX correction on horizon. Too many people are forgetting that oil was at 27 just 4 weeks ago. It went from 27-33 in about 2 weeks, and is now struggling to hold 33 or above. I researched the inventory situation and if we have several 5Mil+ API's over the next month, oil could very well be below 27 before Novemeber. Remember, I believe OPEC does not want to increase production to flood the market, but they do want stability in Crude. With OPEC meeting next saturday, doesn't anyone agree we should get a SPIKE down in crude to the 30BBl over the next week?

Oil fundamentally looks to be riding on HYPE, that 40BBL is coming. Perhaps we will see 40BBL, but not until next late Feb- april. The supply will pick up just as it did last September. I was long then and I felt the pain as each week inventories continued to increase. I wish everyone the best but in reality this OSX run is running out of steam!! Even if oil hits 34 BBL i still foresee a 15-20% correction in OSX over the next 6 weeks if not sooner.

A friend of mine suggested that OPEC probably diverted too much oil to ASIA instead of the US in August, but with the political landmines over the next 2-3 months its obvious much more crude is either on the seas heading to our ports or unloading as we speak!!

Comments are appreciated!
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