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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (15715)9/3/2000 2:55:01 PM
From: UnBelievable  Read Replies (3) of 436258
 
TA and FA Seem to be Pointing in Two Different Directions.

We have discussed a numbers of arguments for a slowing economy and the potential for real big problems.

But the fact is that TA has been much more effective in predicting market direction. The market really wants to go up and is going up. The dollar remains very strong.

I'm beginning to think that there must be parts of the economic picture that are escaping us inclined to rely on fundamental analysis for general market direction.

Many have indicated that US prosperity to date has been significantly facilitated by the rest of the worlds willingness to provide an ongoing stream of goods at inexpensive dollar denominated rates.

With the economies in Europe and Asia seen as starting to revive, there has been speculation that the free lunch is over. These growing economies will both drive up the cost of industrial inputs putting pressure on corporate profits as well provide enhanced markets for outputs, driving up the costs for US consumers as well.

There are any numbers of factors that we might be missing. Perhaps we have underestimated the relative strength of the US economy when compared to the rest of the world. Therefore, the primary result of the revival of other world economies will be an enhanced ability to meet the needs of the US.

While it may be that an increased interest in equity investing by the American public has created a unique opportunity to monetize shareholder ignorance I wonder if it is really that easy to fool all of the people all of the time?

The theorists seem to be faced with a bit of a problem when they start talking about bubbles efficient market.
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