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Strategies & Market Trends : DAYTRADING Fundamentals
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To: Tai Jin who wrote (9448)9/3/2000 2:57:06 PM
From: Robert Graham  Read Replies (2) of 18137
 
I also had a very large position in the stock (about 50% of my equity), but I was very confident in the chart and what was going on so I was comfortable with my large position. I suppose something like what happened to ENTU could have happened to MERX, but the probability was almost nil while the probability of big gains was very high.

Where are you coming up with this? When is the probability that close to zero where a given a trade will end up as a profit? Or that you will not incur any losses, unless you placed a stop right next to your entry point. It is almost as if you are treating your analysis of the chart as a *preditcion* instead of the assessment of probabilities for profit and the determination of related risk factors. There is no prediction in chart analysis. Perhaps you are confusing the determination of risk with the assessment of the potential profit for a potential trade? For the risk you take on in a trade is what you determine. The actual profit is up to the market which is what you are attempting to assess. Only how well you can capitalize on it is up to you. I do not know of anyone who can be that certain about what they see on a chart. And all of those who thought they could predict based on the chart come and go. Even the apllication of predictive techniques to charting do not purport to be that accurate.

Just some thoughts. :-)

Bob Graham
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