Cha2,
<< HDR exists now. The chip exists, the software for it exists and it has been extensively tested >>
In that case you could say that WCDMA existed when DoCoMo trialed it in lab in 1996 at 2 Mbps. Failing that, you could certainly say it existed when SK-Telecom did the live streaming video conference from a "moving" vehicle in February.
<< Among those tests were one where the President of the US sat alongside Dr J in rural Carolina - one of the most under-reported events of recent history - perhaps even you missed it >>
No. Caught it. Did you catch the SK-Telecom WCDMA event?
So now if you will repeat after me, "WCDMA Exists", I'll be glad to say that "HDR Exists".
I fall back on the literal definition of vaporware ("new software that has been announced or marketed but has not been produced"), and say to you that vaporware, gives me the vapours, and HDR is vaporware, and will be at least until its in standard.
Any HDR chips that exists are early prototypes. I have not looked at Qualcomm's (changing) "roadmap" for a bit, but in actuality what we will see next are some prototype chips for tests and trials. We'll eventually see some engineering samples for further tests and trials and then eventually production chips in quantities. I would estimate these about 1 year after the 1st phase of the standard completes.
I hope I'm wrong on this time frame but I really do not expect much revenue from 1xEV-DO in the upcoming Qualcomm fiscal. I also do not expect huge quantities of 1xEV-DO chipsets initially. We are talking about data only devices, not mobile handsets. Early on, we are not going to see all that many HDR, data only devices.
1xEV-DV (Data AND Voice) is (supposedly) to complete standardization next summer. That will start the clock for production of silicon for production quantities of same in 2002.
HDR has great promise. As a Qualcomm investor, I am interested in when that promise turns into the reality of revenue $, and how this impacts the growth of the CDMA/HDR user base by being adopted by new users. We currently have 7 major network users. We could use a few more. This limited user base, sets up the possibility of easy disruption of Qualcomm's earnings, when we have a setback like the Korean subsidy ban.
<< how we can divide the discussion on current spectrum and new spectrum in the most meaningful and productive way >>
I am reminded of a song by "Queen".
"I want it ALL ... and I want it NOW"
But, for starters we are talking 2.5G v.3G. Plenty of SI discussion on the Moderated Qualcomm thread, and the somewhat more bipartisan Nokia thread, and there is of course that new 3G thread as well. Overall, better discussed there than here.
The MSM5000 ersatz 3G (2.5G) chipset will be deployed by a limited number of existing users after it starts shipping in commercial quantities sometime this calendar year.
Fun starts with the MSM5100 and its derivatives (especially after HDR gets cut into the derivatives).
Penetration of the 2.5G (existing spectrum) markets (beyond the current ANSI-41 based user base) your looking at require incorporation of an R-UIM for global roaming. Deliveries are a year away. Same applies of course for 3G markets.
Now as it relates to your favorite potential market (and mine) Benjamin Garrett has some interesting discussion going on about CWTS leading an initiative within 3GPP2 about converging HDR, 1XTREME, (one or the other or both) and LAS-CDMA/TD-SCDMA. At the same time there are ongoing discussions going on in 3GPP between ETSI (EP UTRA Project) to harmonize LAS-CDMA/TD-SCDMA and UTRA TD, and perhaps this is the Siemens led initiative we are hearing about.
Link to a Benjamin post on this here:
Message 14322744
- Eric - |
