The BlackBerry plague cometh:
by Stefani Lako Baldwin
September 05, 2000
But threats to Palm's dominance are in the cards.
I hate getting a virus. Mostly because when I go to the doctor she tells me I just have to ride it out; no medical cure. Which only leads me to ponder why those biotech companies have such large market caps and yet they can't cure a cold.
But I must say that I hope the Finnish prediction that more viruses will attack personal digital assistants and other handheld devices within the next six months comes true. In epic proportions.
I hope viruses called Trojan and Liberty take down these annoying devices with all the speed of a cowboy roping a steer at rodeo.
From Palm's (PALM) wireless "Palm VII" to Research in Motion's (RIMM) wireless email pager, BlackBerry 957, I'd love to see handheld sets explode all over New York City.
The BlackBerry Plague, historians will call it.
Go on, admit it. You hate those people on the train saying, far more loudly than necessary: "Ooh, I just got an email from work," or "Hey, honey do you want to know the top headlines from the The Wall Street Journal?"
And let's face it, it's mostly men.
Palm would not give me a gender breakdown of its sales but the savvy consumer can make some estimates.
Men and their toys
I say 80-20, male to female. I base this conclusion on the following: Palm likes to advertise that the device fits perfectly inside a shirt pocket. Hmm, which sex has a daily uniform with a front pocket? Or take a look at the preloaded software in the new Palm VII: The Wall Street Journal, The Street.com and ESPN.
OK, maybe when it comes to electronic gadgets, I'm a bit bitter. I bought a Nintendo GameBoy a few years ago in an attempt to understand the craze. With my free game coupon I purchased the "Empire Strikes Back." Four years have passed and Luke is still stuck in the opening sequence on the ice planet. I can't even get him to his Jedi Knight training.
I've played around with Palm Pilots, briefly, and find them a good deal easier to navigate than the dark side. I simply dislike, however, the desire (or is it need?) many people have to be in constant contact. Seeing news headlines. Beaming emails to friends. Reading Hotmail on cell phones. It all sounds exhausting.
Sadly, all statistics point to me becoming a member in a small, anti-handheld device rebellion that secretly meets in the Degoba System.
According to International Data Corp., 50 million handheld devices will be in the workforce by 2003, many of them wireless. Forrester Research (FORR) predicts that 57 percent of the workforce will have mobile connections to the workplace.
Right now Palm is definitely emperor.
Threats to Palm
Analysts estimate that together, Palm and Handspring (HAND), which makes the Visor device, own 90 percent of the handheld market.
But threats to Palm's dominance are in the cards.
Sony (SNE) announced its plans to put CLIE on the shelf by mid-September. CLIE uses the Palm operating system, but acts more as an entertainment device. It allows users to watch streaming video and play video games in addition to keeping track of information.
Great.
Cellular phones have already started to offer features that only the Palm VII can boast of: wireless email and Internet surfing. Nokia (NOK) announced last Friday that it planned to roll out the Nokia 3310 phone this month, which will include Internet "chatlike" functions.
So the two delivery options will begin hand-to-hand combat. The sector is young enough for plenty of growth, but certainly investors should watch carefully to see who gains the most ground.
Nokia, AT&T Wireless (AWE), Ericsson (ERICY) and Sprint PCS (PCS) were trading last week in the $20 to $50 range.
Palm's stock hovers around initial public offering price, in the low $40 range. Handspring was trading in the low $30s and Research in Motion in the $80 range.
The notion of 50 million handheld devices, plus cellular phones, all with operating systems vulnerable to attack, could lead to the creation of a hot new stock sector.
A new sector
Anti-computer virus companies could become as big as today's biotech sector. Imagine the sales potential for Norton AntiVirus when 50 million handheld devices are beaming and downloading viruses all around the globe.
We could call it the Handtech Sector. It would include anti-virus software makers such as Symantec (SYMC), Network Associates (NETA) and Trend Micro (TMIC).
Biotech companies have been making a fortune off human misery; maybe it's time to start investing in stocks that have the potential to make a killing in virtual misery. You could have entire mutual funds based on this sector.
I can see it now. It's 2005 and I'm sitting on the subway. The Palm Pilots of 10 fellow passengers suddenly scream and begin smoking. The owners stare down in anguish, realizing a computer bug had been inadvertently beamed to the devices. I glance down at the all-paper date book in my lap and try not to smile too loudly.
"Knock one year off my estimated retirement date," I write on my things-to-do-list.
As Darth Vader would say: "All too easy."
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