I would agree with you that the NTT, NOK, ERICY axis is the way the market is perceiving SKT's current position. However, I believe that SKT is simply playing it's WCDMA card at the insistence of NTT. I believe that they will drop the WCDMA facade to acquiesce to their government's demand to implement CDMA2000. At this point, the WCDMA = 80% market share will fall apart as Korea leverages their expertise in CDMA2000 to gain early market share of CDMA2000 in China.
This battle has nothing to do with the merits of CDMA2000 vs WCDMA. At this point, Korea is looking to save face and preserve the best possible technology for their consumers. The complete lack of credibility (esp. AWSJ) in all the news we have received to date regarding Korea, Japan, and WCDMA is beginning to reverse itself. Remember all of the lies about DDI going with WCDMA in Japan??
As Gilder said, QCOM is beginning to take a greater role in the standards process for 3G CDMA. Last week, Gilder said that HDR would have several announcments regarding incremental speed improvements. Voila, the very next day Samsung says they can take CDMA2000 via HDR to 5 MBPS next year. WOW!! Was that prescient or what?? More importantly, he cautioned that QCOM would be leading the standards process. This guy has an awful lot of credibility, so do not dismiss this potential for the collapse of the NOK, NTT, ERICY triumverate in Asia. In any case, China comes out today saying they are prepared to follow the Korean governments recommendation to go forward with current CDMA systems.
There is so much behind the scenes action that the plot is absolutely amazing. It is Shakespearian drama at it's best. When you strip away all of the FUD (as some like to call it), CDMA2000 has a proven track record for success. WCDMA has yet to win a single battle, despite some ridiculous attempts by foreign GSM companies to overpay for companies like Voicestream, not to mention the ridiculous prices they are paying for "wideband" 5 MHZ spectrum.
Will the Euro's continue to compound mistakes and go with DS CDMA?? Probably, but the Asians (especially the Chinese) have a limited amount of financial assets that could be wasted on backwater CDMA systems. I doubt that they will waste money on GSM upgrades developed in the 70's that were not designed for voice, data, video, audio, GPS, etc... I guess it is not coincidental that the Chinese are warming up to CDMA again as the Senate nears a final vote on PNTR status for China. My guess is the climax for this crazy CDMA drama will soon be obvious.
Japan will control the WCDMA market and concentrate on sales to the West (Europe). Korea will control the market for CDMA2000 and contorl the East (China). NOK and ERICY will share a bountiful plate of crow. |
