Flash growing 123% in 2000, but report sees glut in NOR-type chips
Semiconductor Business News
(09/05/00, 04:51:14 PM EDT)
MONTEREY, Calif. -- Flash memory markets will rack up an extraordinary growth rate of 123% in 2000, pushing worldwide revenues to $10.4 billion from $4.56 billion in 1999, according to a new report from Web-Fleet Research Inc. here.
Shortages of flash chips will continue to fuel sales growth through the middle of next year, but new production capacity for NOR-type flash devices will exceed demand in late 2001 or early 2002, said analyst Alan Niebel of Web-Fleet Research. "Most of the allocation programs will continue into next year, but supplies of NOR-type flash--what I call code-flash memory--will begin to surpass demand. There will continue to be shortages of NAND-type flash--or data flash memory--until at least 2004."
The NAND-flash chips are experiencing a different growth pattern than the NOR-flash memories, Niebel suggested. NAND flash is often used to store data, such as pictures in digital camera systems, music in MP3 audio players, and in computer data in memory cards. NOR flash is widely used to hold software and program code in cellular phones, portable products and PCs.
Major suppliers of NOR-flash memories are now adding too much production capacity with new wafer-fab lines and device shrinks, said the Web-Fleet Research analyst. These companies include Advanced Micro Devices, Intel, Atmel, STMicroelectronics, Sharp, Mitsubishi, and to some extent Fujitsu, he said. Meanwhile, suppliers of NAND flash devices are having trouble keeping up with demand. Currently, these manufacturers include Toshiba, Samsung, Hitachi, and Fujitsu, Niebel said.
Overall flash unit shipments grew 56% in 1999 and 64% in 2000, which pushed up average selling prices for devices up by 12% and 43%, respectively, said the new market report. Between 2000 and 2005, flash memory revenues are expected to grow at an annual rate of 29.9%, said Web-Fleet Research. Unit growth will increase at 22.6% on an annual basis. Average selling prices will rise at only a 6% compound annual growth rate during the next five years, according to the report.
By 2005, flash revenues are expected to total $37 billion, remaining the second largest memory segment, next to DRAMs, said the Monterey-based research firm. |
