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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting
QCOM 159.42-1.2%Jan 16 9:30 AM EST

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To: slacker711 who wrote (2787)9/5/2000 6:33:47 PM
From: Jacob Snyder  Read Replies (2) of 197244
 
Interesting list:

Care to put some % probabilities on each of those happening in 2000 or 2001?

- An end to the handset subsidy ban in Korea. This would immediately improve the outlook for the fourth quarter. I think it would be highly likely we would see a chipset shortage.- This might move the stock from it's current 55-70 range, back into the previous 70-80 range, but not much higher. It will take news about improvements in a big market to get us above 80.

- Large (hundreds of millions) orders for CDMA infrastructure by China Unicom.- Yes, that would get us above 80. But the Chinese game is to negotiate endlessly, while gradually improving the technology they control. I think they will not build 3G until they can control it. So, I'd put this at a very low probability.

- Capitulation by Nokia (unlikely until next year)....-.- Agreed. Nokia will reach agreament with QCOM (and Spinco) in 2001 or 2002. Not this year, and they can't wait till 2003 or they'll be too far behind.

- An announcement that Qualcomm is participating with a couple of carriers in W-CDMA handset trials..- - At the moment, investors seem to have decided that QCOM loses big if WCDMA becomes the global standard. When that perception changes, QCOM will take off. I have no idea what timeframe is reasonable on this.
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