<<most of my net worth is in QCOM. I believe it is the most undervalued stock in the market right now>>
ditto
Rick, I am generally “clueless” about most things in life. When I start to be able to connect the dots in a situation like Qcom, most folks that pay attention have already got a firm handle on the scoreboard and the inning of the game.
Late last night I started to write down a list of things that would affect Q’s stock in a positive way. Well, the list just got stronger and stronger and longer and longer.
I think I ended up with 22 significant events during the next 12 month time frame.
Bottom line: We are moving North. There are just tooooo many positive events that will occur in the next 90 days or so to not get Q climbing again. Anyone want to add/edit list, feel free. Dates are guesstimates.
Negative perception could keep the brakes on Q for for the balance of this year to some extent. My theory is that most institutional players are “gutless followers”
After Jan 1, it is a new game, institutions should feel comfortable to really join the ride. Positive “herd behavior” takes over.
Anyway, I am keeping this list. It’s like a roadmap of things to come.
1. September 2000 - US Senate passes China PNTR because there is an “understanding” regarding China Unicom politically correct behavior regarding wireless technology. 10 MILLION PHONES WERE HONORED.
( Some say congress was a tad irked after that June fiasco)
2. September 2000.- Korea – 2 out of 3 opt for CDMA2000. 1 for WCDMA.
3. 9/12/00 1X EV-DO vote (per Ben Garrett GK post 31053) Apparently, from what I can decipher from Eric L. posts earlier, from the specifications being standardized to the commercial deployment of 1X EV -DO should take approximately 12 months. Just In time for holiday sales 2001. (Standardized specifications starts the clock.), Specifications to be published in Oct 2000.
4. Oct 2000 - Convergence of standards. Read Eric’s posts earlier (Moderated 2770). Interesting stuff. HDR, 1XTREME, and LAS-CDMA/TD-SCDMA convergence. Even a total non-techie like me can see how all these flavors are depending on Q’s CDMA core proprietary architecture now. OK so maybe, like somebody said, it really doesn’t matter where you get started in CDMA. They are converging.
5. Fall 2000 – China orders infrastructure to upgrade existing CDMA network to 1x. Handsets supplied by Korean vender.
6. Oct 2000 - Spinco news announces deal with Major player re upcoming IPO and commercial production of WCDMA chips for 1st Q 2001 European market.
7. Oct 2000 – Korea begins successful commercial service for CDMA 1x with stationery speeds at 144kbs. Works great. Venders sell handsets for Christmas season. Ban does not apply to 1x.
8. Nov 2000 – earnings beat by .01 or .02 + positive outlook based on some percentage of above coming true.
9. Dec 2000 - Spinco press release re IPO date. Spinco becoming its own entity should have positive valuation impact for Spinco. Go*QCOM reported earlier on Moderated thread that analyst expected a strong showing for Spinco IPO latimes.com
10. Jan 2001- Q earnings looking good positive outlook. Some bright analyst figures out at the conference call that GSM HAS DIED. RIP. No more new GSM infrastructure networks. Sorry! Only flavors of CDMA make sense now.
11. Jan 2001 – Immediately after earnings, the institutional investors positive “herd behavior” takes over. Qcom breaks out over 100 on very strong volume. 50,000,000+ shares traded
12. 1Q 2001 – Nokia upgrades license to cover “ Q - all flavors” in order to compete in WCDMA European sales. Q heads for 140.
13. 1Q 2001 – Samsung moves along with process of commercial deployment of its 5mbps version of HDR and submits proposals to CWTS for inclusion in proposed convergence of standards 1x EV- DV.
14. Spring 2001 - Europe goes ’99 version of WCDMA as planned. 40% of Europeans replace their handsets within 12 months. Spinco gets 80% of market share of chips. Q gets 100% of expected royalties. Potential major increase in revenues calculated by analysts. UPGRADES. UPGRADES.
15. 2Q 2001 – Something really amazing happens with Globalstar. Orders are definitely accelerating. This company is projected to be profitable soon, and is gaining widespread acceptance.
16. Docomo launches ’99 version WCDMA may 2001, now racing with Europeans for "first to market". Q cash register collects again. Maybe royalties only this time, sorry not a perfect world – may not get chip business every time.
17. 2Q 2001 – China orders more CDMA – expands current network and begins the process of upgrading current GSM network through “converged standard” which was published 10/2000.
18. Summer 2001 – Specifications are published for 1x EV – DV.
19. Summer 2001 - American venders wake up!!! Verizon begins commercial service of 1X with data only overlay service announced to be available before Christmas
20. Summer 2001 - Sprint also begins 1X service. ATT announces availability of internet data speeds up to 2 mbps available shortly. (using 1X data only overlay)
21. Fall 2001 – Telematics becomes reality with Ford’s new CDMA capabilities in their new models based on 1x technology initially has a few cool GPS, and multimedia applications with the promise of more to come. (Software upgradeable)
22. 4Q 2001 Licenses, 3g applications, and new products to market are announced continually. Digital Cinema, Snaptrack, Eudora, Globalstar, Wireless Internet Services are integrated into heretofore unimaginable product offerings.
The ship is coming in. I love it.
Regards,
Iaminthesameboatasyouare.com |
