Hi Dmf, am catching up on posts and saw your poignant post.
RE: "wondering why the market is more than willing to act on Kumar"
Let me share a long story with you about my first instance of education towards understanding how:
a) it is very, very possible for respected Financial Analysts to be completely out of touch with actuality and
b) how Wall Street marches to the tune of the Financial Analysts, regardless if they are wrong.
These folks work in the financial industry, not the high-tech industry. Sometimes they are wrong - and this is what my story is about, which follows:
(Once upon a time) when I worked for a very large software firm (north of here), just before the flagship product was about to ship, the company was humming with excitement. Absolutely humming with excitement. In fact, the entire industry was humming. Every single person felt the hum. An analyst had to be completely blind not to feel the absolute thrill of this hum that pulsated throughout the entire community, city, and industry.
So, while the entire high-tech industry was pulsating with the demand for this product and even though this was so obvious to everyone - and I mean every single person in the high-tech industry (it wasn't a secret), the analysts were busy downgrading the company. They downgraded it so badly that the stock dropped in half. I was extremely naive, but fortunately I wasn't stupid -- the smartest thing I did was to ignore the analysts. They were dead wrong on their predictions. From this experience, which I admit was an extreme example, it taught me to always regarded their advice with caution and trust my own judgment. By the way, demand reported in the previous quarter had dropped prior to the release of this flagship product (of course), so the analysts had decided to project this one-time pattern way out into the future, according to their reports. I have absolutely no clue why they would do something like that, but it certainly taught me that analysts can be wrong. Maybe they track too many stocks? Focus can be a very valuable tool for doing well.
This experience also taught me that analysts tend to look backwards, like an accountant, not forward, like a marketer. This was a very formulating experience for me.
I tend to trust the opinion of folks on this thread - folks who live and breathe high-tech - before a financial analyst who might be located on the other side of this country, very far away. Maybe they should relocate Wall Street to Silicon Valley? I don't know if Kumar is right or wrong. I tend to believe this is just the usual September-time-doldroms, that seems to precede the usual Q4 retail boom pattern.
RE: "All replies appreciated."
I don't know if the story about what I experienced a long time ago helped any, or if it in any way even remotely applies, but I would recommend listening to the folks on either the INTC or AMD thread.
RE: "Need a little hand-holding here."
You've got mine. I'm a tad more than 50% in INTC. I'm a big believer in INTC. It's the kind of company that I can invest in and not worry too much about - that's important to me. Worry is time.
RE: "At least while I read that Intel yields are not what I would expect"
True, but let's look at this capitalistically. IMHO it's a fab war. What's AMD's fab capacity? How long would it take for AMD to get more fabs online? Can AMD supply the world's demand? How many new fabs did Intel announce? Intel's manufacturing has the capability to really crank high volume. As an investor, this is what I focus on.
RE: "the demand we've been reading about is not real"
The 4% figure posted by Harry I think re: current server capacity is something to get excited about - to me, it implies a large opportunity.
RE: "I think others understands my frustration."
I do
RE: "Trying to be rational. Trying not to scream, "Help!" Appreciative of all replies. Very, very. dmf "
I'm hanging around for the long-term and I bet you are too.
Take care,
Amy J |
