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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: mtnlady who wrote (31160)	9/7/2000 12:47:39 PM
From: Thomas Mercer-Hursh	Read Replies (1) of 54805

I make no pretense of being an expert on optical networking ... or even knowledgeable, for that matter, but I have to wonder about a couple of your statements in the context of what we know about CSCO as a gorilla. NT's lead growing. LU falling behind. CSCO only ranked 7th (!). For them to catch NT at this rate they would need some unbelievable market share gains quarter to quarter and NT would need to be losing ground. My first question would be to ask where we were in the cycle of adopting optical. If it is fairly early on and that the installations to date are really just the tip of the iceberg in what will be coming eventually, then I wonder just how unbelievable it is. Clearly CSCO is slow off the blocks here, but they have done that before and shown good ability to catch up and regain leadership in new domains. Isn't it likely to be the case that at this point optical is going in to fairly early adopter type environments where CSCO's whole system advantage is less likely to be important since EA types are happy to pick and choose among many vendors while mainstream companies are attracted by the complete solution?

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