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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services
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To: GREENLAW4-7 who wrote (72581)9/7/2000 3:52:00 PM
From: BigBull  Read Replies (1) of 95453
 
A bubble? Perhaps.

Still the crude inventory builds don't trouble me as much as they seem to inspire you. HO demand is very inelastic. I mean yeah you can cut back on gasoline usage, but unless you're willing to freeze to death, you gotta burn that ng and HO. HO stocks are some 40-50% below last years levels. A TREMENDOUS amount of oil needs to be refined to keep severe shortages from coming this winter. How much crude would you guess? I'm thinking 40 mb to even approach meeting the need, that's about how far we are behind now. This is the US ONLY. Winter happens in Europe and Asia too. Refineries somewhere somehow need to start making product. And I mean toot sweet. Like yesterday dude. It's kind of a fait accompli at this point. IMO this situation will not get solved over night. The biggest argument the bears have is RECESSION. If that happens in the next month or two your crash and burn scenario will be right

MAybe there is a lot of speculative froth in crude markets, maybe oil doesn't belong at 35, but 25 seems quite a stretch? I'm thinking maybe you don't get the big crash in patch stocks for a few months yet. Maybe a slightly downward biased trading rangeas some stocks drift back to their 50 dma's? I'm thinking that is the more likely selloff scenario. I'm going to review all the charts this weekend and get back to you. Ok?
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