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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services
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To: GREENLAW4-7 who wrote (72599)9/7/2000 4:41:24 PM
From: The Ox  Read Replies (1) of 95453
 
and I know I am the most unpopular poster on both the RIG board on YHOO, and here!

Quite the contrary, greenlaw4-7. If you have followed the SDOFS thread over the past few years like I have, you would understand that ALL views are relevant here! We have passionate discussions on this thread, which have gotten too personal at times, but for the most part the issues are the focus.

Whether you are right or wrong, you should be encouraged to speak your peace. We will be happy to congratulate you on your successes, just as we'll be happy to rib you mercilessly when you are wrong. (...ok, maybe we'll begrudgingly congratulate you if we are losing money while you rake it in <vbg> )

A 25% correction in the price of crude, back to the 26-27 level will cause a major correction in the OSX. I agree strongly with your theory. However, I openly question your timing. You are counting on OPEC opening the flood gates, which I believe will NOT happen. I believe that crude should drop down into the low 30s in the near future. The problem I have with shorting OSX stocks at this stage is the difficulty with forward expectations. Will crude be $22/bbl by April? Will it be $27/bbl? or $32? or 37?

This environment makes it extremely difficult to make intermediate term predictions but longer term fundamentals are currently in order for the patch. $4+NG and $30+oil is VERY bullish for service companies, IMO.

Good luck with your timing.

Michael
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