Just feeling lonely as a short!!LOL But seriously did anyone else live through the 97 crash in the OSX? I know it started in late 97, and continued through 98, but I remember too well since I bought more HAL, DO, GLM, PDS and a little GW on the top. I recall so vividly many similarities to today. But perhaps the biggest was crude on the NYMEX determined the direction of OSX.
Back in 97 in sept-Nov we were in very similar situation and with winter coming many traders pushed the OSX. Then the crude which was increased in Sept 97 started to hit the API it was a DEATH SPIRAL! I never saw it coming!! I got SLAUGHTERED!! I did buy more HAL at the bottom, 28, GLM at 9, PDS at 10, DO at 14 and RIG at 15.
But the way the OSX fell out of bed was INCREDIBLE! I am not at all prediting what happened in 97-98, I am only stating many factors are very similar, RIG COUNTS, TIME OF YEAR, NYMEX SPECULATION, LOW INVENTORIES.
I do not believe the ASIA myth that they caused crude to crash, it was actually several factors;
1. OPEC increased production by 10% in sept 97 because the world was complaining about low inventories,
2. Winter was scearing many about shortages
3. Crude was still fairly high
4. OPEC believed demand would outstrip supplys.
In conclusion THEY HAD ALREADY PUMPED ENOUGH IN THE SUMMER OF 97, THEY CREATED A GLUT. The warm winter added fuel to the already burning price of CRUDE!
All while the retail investor like myself kept believeing 18 was too low, then 16, 15, 13, 12, 10, 9
I wish everyone who reads my posts HEAVY PROFITS but in this short term market it looks as if for the near-term the OSX is SPENT, and will prove the money to be made is Short! |
