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Technology Stocks : copper mountain CMTN
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To: Rarebird who wrote (742)9/8/2000 12:43:48 AM
From: P314159d  Read Replies (1) of 1226
 
Just an interesting anecdote from my fundamental analysis of Copper. I use a linear progression analysis for the future quarters.
Last qtr CMTN missed the linear progression with a 4 million add in revs, by one million. And they had higher expense ratios in marketing. Both contributed to the stock decline. Naturally I revised my forecast to show less add, but a better control in expense than the qtr to qtr growth just seen. i figure that they added heavy and may taper the expense additions a little better going forward. Using the same model and only adding 1m next qtr before slowing the growth even more 2 to 3 million for future qtrs led to some interesting results.

1.02 eps this year and 1.67 next year, plus utilising predictive PE (PPE)ratio and PEG (Current PE vs Growth) versus the stock price, I arrived at the following observation. PPE mean defines the predictive price based on the mean price of the stock and predicted eps growth. PEG uses the growth expectation as a PE and multiplies the current eps. It shows the match of expectation to current price on a predictive basis. the low stock price is in a position of value below these figures.

Quarter 99Q4 00Q1 00Q2 00Q3
-----------------------------------------------------
Stock Low 36 54 50 52
PPE mean 44 58 59 57
PEG price 44 42 49 60

The last time the price was BELOW both indications was last Q4 when the stock raced from its low of 36 to 84. Fundamentals point to a huge buy here, can the technicals follow?
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