Having lurked here for a couple of years, inquiring minds want to know how much $$ PP has lost being mindlessly short the OSX? Eventually, I'll grant PP will be right--but perhaps long after the broker has taken the keys away.
A short-term selloff wouldn't surprise, or bother me. I added my positions in March-April of '99 (using the fine rec's from the contributors here--an extra tip of the hat to SOB), and have held tough, "sweating it out" when the OSX dropped into the 60's in the fall of '99, while I watched others like SOB trade circles around me. I've recently added some MDR, and am looking at some other OSX laggards w/or w/o a dip. The fundamentals for the OSX look pretty darn good to me--the depletion/underinvestment argument is playing out with a vengeance here. So what if oil dips to $25? E&Ps are going to have to drill like mad to keep up with worldwide demand. (Big, you are so right on this one.) And while they do, rig utilization is going to go up, up, and pretty soon, it'll be time to build some more rigs...and shoot more seismics. It's really good that we are climbing that wall of E&P FUD, as it's hard to have a bull market if everyone thinks things are just perfect. (I see the same thing going on over in semis...) My only concern is that this doubt keeps supply so constrained that demand drives prices so far up that it induces a worldwide recession. (Apparently caution can kill too.) So, I guess I'll just watch and wait, while the pile grows larger and larger...and add as I see fit.
Pete |
