Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)

AMZN 229.12

-0.2%

Nov 26 3:59 PM EST

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To: Alomex who wrote (108137)	9/8/2000 10:01:47 PM
From: Alomex	Read Replies (2) of 164684

Sales for quarter ending 9/00 are estimated by analysts around $600 million, with losses of approx $115 million. On sales of $1000 million, analysts estimate losses of $80-90 million. That is, on extra sales of $400 million, analysts see Amazon paring its losses by $25-30 million for net margins for last dollar sold around 10%. Using these figures, to remove the last $80-90 million in losses Amazon would have to post sales of $1800-$2100 million. Also we can assume that Amazon will stop expanding as fast as it used therefore in Q4/2001 we should expect AMZN to break even or nearly so. The subsequent three quarters AMZN would continue losing money and finally post its first profit in Q4/2002. By the end of FY2003, AMZN is likely to report, $1 in earnings per share, with modest growth. Such a company would deserve a P/E of 20-40 or $40 per share. So there you go, ladies and gentlemen. Buy AMZN today at $44 and you'll have the opportunity to sell it at $40 in 2003. You can't beat that!

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