> About your regression, what's X and what's Y here? Are they the variables POG and Dollar Index?
Yes.
> Can you supply me the raw data so I can do my own analysis?
Sure, you want Lotus, Excel, csv ???
> However, I disagree with your statement regarding demand. Demand is increasing about 5% per year, and that's primarily jewelry demand in Asia.
Last three years (97/98/99) of total demand were: 4228mt, 4123mt, 4065mt.
Jewelry was 3342mt in 1997, 3145mt in 1998, I don't have 1999.
> Let's examine the figures, the net supply deficit = 1500 tons/yr, agreed? Scrap is 500 tons, that leaves 1000 tons unaccounted for. If CB dishoarding ("sales" you call it) were 250 tons, where did the other 750 tons come from?
You are comparing two ten year averages to last years gap. (apples to oranges, leaving 750 left over)
In 1999, total demand = total supply = 4065mt
mine production was 2569, gap was 1496 (we agree)
The data I have indicates:
624mt (41%) of the gap was filled by scrap
445mt (29.5%) was filled by forward sales
441mt (29.5%) was filled by central bank sales
Adds up to 1510mt (close enough ?)
I have my "best guess" at these numbers at: goldsheet.simplenet.com
You might like my production history since 1970; goldsheet.simplenet.com |
