EyeDoc,
I wouldn't place my faith in one misleading statistic about oil to support a bull scenario. The % of gdp spent on crude oil is not reflective of it's impact on our economy. More useful measures would be; per capita consumption of oil, dependency on other commodities on oil, and the ability for the us consumer/business to accomodate to rising energy/fuel costs.
For example, roughly 20% of the price of food is determined by the energy costs. This begins with the use of deisel in farm work, fertilizer (made for nat. gas), transportation of the food, the energy which goes into processing it, and then the packaging, which is usually a petroleum derived plastic.
We could go on about manufacturing, mining, transportation, etc..
The 1% figure was based on a total dollar amount at one period of time. It doesn't reflect what is happening to the price of oil since that data was collected. That's where per capita consumption of oil helps. Our per capita consumption of oil is slightly higher than in the early 1970's. Unbelieveable? Yes, and our domestice production is far less than in that period.
As for the ability to the economy to absorb the most inflating commodity around... I suppose consumer savings could drop from negative .2% to an even more negative number. The explosion of corporate debt could also swell further.
Look for some high energy prices this winter. Prices that will cut into domestic consumption and cast doubt on the soft landing myth.
"1973 compared to 2000" is a good intro.
simmonsco-intl.com |
