tekboy,
On your proposed portfolio,
QCOM 20%
GMST 20%
SEBL 10%
ITWO 10%
JDSU 10%
NTAP 10%
CREE 10%
SNDK 10%
I question JDSU as a long-term hold. Having missed most of the runup in 1999, I think it is fully valued at this point. I hold a little. I am struggling with another optical play (BKHM, AVCI, AVNX, BKM, BRW, ???), but none of those fit the G&K model.
My concern on JDSU is that at some point the optical network gets built to the point of where it reasonably can be deployed. So, I am not sure about it long-term. Perhaps someone who understands better the optical market can address the risk that the market has a finite amount of gear that can reasonably be deployed.
I also think CREE is more risky than your other choices and would go with WIND if you are looking for a bowling alley play. I hold CREE, however so I hope the Creetins spare the invective.
NTAP is the third non-gorilla on that list, but that one could evolve if its WAFL technology takes root.
If you are willing to throw another king in the mix, consider SUNW. (On this one, I hope Jean Gauthier does not start another "Sun is a gorillla" "Oh no it is not" discussion.) I think Sun just continues to execute and have very interesting technology in Jini, etc. It is poised for a computers everywhere strategy. Again, SUNW is now quice pricey on valuation. [Curiously, I am seeing fewer of Sun's "We are the dot in .com" ads these days.]
In summary, consider WIND. And when you get right down to it, shouldn't you just overweight toward QCOM a bit more!! In valuation terms, that just looks like a screaming buy for the long term.
saukriver |
