Hi Susan,
Back to posting a little.. I hope you are doing well..
A few observations on the expected pending September, October correction-crash?? I don't entirely believe it will be coming.
1. Our yearly big correction is in, ie, April May, whereas in 98, 99 it was the July-October time frame.
2. Maybe like in 97, we will have a mid to late Oct. mini crash.. pre election.. Mushing up to that period.
3. Since 96, been basically trading the top portion of big rising weekly channel ( slight wedging). where we started the 98, 99 July_October down turns.. Well our April, May correction this year brought us to the lower half of the Channel.. where we have basically been trading.. So the impetus to move will be to the Upper bounds , unless we decisively break the lower boundary, then all bets are off.
4. My own weekly momentum indicators are much stronger than the last two years on Price. I can't read the same on Volume or Beta or Vix. One thing that concerns me is the Way overbought situation of the Beta. Vix.
5. Sentiment, the April May 2000 down draft along with the Two previous years Sept-Early Oct weakness have together spooked people into being very careful in this season, this year.
On a short term basis, my hourlies and dailies are on a sell but I don't think for more than 2 or three days at the most. if that. Could take us to 1475 SPX.
I don't know if I'm right Susan, but that's the way I see it from a beautiful Saturday morn in the eastern foothills.
Take care,,, m
p.s. Acually I bought two issues on Friday..uggh??.. maybe i'm talking my little trading position..<gg>. |
