oh you wanted absolute real-time! sorry, i'll try next time to take my eyes off the level II screen during market hours, forget my just entered big order to short a very volatile high-flier near its 52-week high, forget all that and come here to post my trades AS THEY HAPPEN.
but relax, why all this fuss about $ 170? maybe ARBA announces a 10-1 split on monday, and gaps up to $ 200 and i end up looking like a complete idiot, and an arrogant one at that, $ 170 will be a distant memory and i leave this thread with my tail between my legs.
:-)
but i doubt it.
stocks usually top at or very near round numbers qlong, a few examples:
QCOM at $ 800
CMRC at $ 330 (the last 30 points happened so fast it was unbelievable, probably shorters who entered too soon being squeezed)
YHOO at $ 500 (around $ 125 billion market cap)
ICGE at $ 200 ($ 55 billion market cap!! what American Express was worth then)
INSP at $ 140 (almost, $ 25 billion market cap...)
and many others.
when you see a chart that is already too parabolic too last (not quite ARBA's case right now in this second run, but it was for the examples above), you follow it, then your feel should tell you how many days are left in the rally.
knowing that, you begin to watch it closely waiting to attack, you can even enter a limit order to short at the round number the stock is moving towards, it's very very probable it will approach it, even touch it, in a day of huge volume and typical blowoff top feeding frenzy, with RSI probably at 85 or thereabouts, and then REVERSE.
that's the end.
those kind of runs ruin a chart.
QCOM, YHOO, and CMRC the day of their parabolic blowoff tops are PERFECT examples of this, perfect, or even EGRP in april 99 (shooting star big as a football stadium).
watching those feeding frenzy days on level II is so unbelievably FUN.
the safest thing to do, however, is to actually WAIT til it breaks the trendline, retestes it, cannot surpass that resistance and goes back down -> then short, it's safe.
but you lost the first 20 points in profits, as in this case.
the comment to kracko was too arrogant, yes, i apologize. |
