of course candlesticks don't always work, that's what stops are for, i'm very disciplined with that.
but on the week of 7/13 there wasn't ALSO a double top, the valuation was NOT $ 40 billion, and the hanging man (it's not a shooting star) is followed by a red candlestick but of shorter length than the one on the left, so it's not quite a perfect evening star either like the one on the week of 3/13 at the $ 183 top was, notice the length of the red candlestick on the right after that shooting star.
that's why what happens with ARBA in the next 2 weeks will be key.
"Evening star. This is a bearish pattern signifying a potential top. The "star" indicates a possible reversal and the bearish (filled-in) line confirms this. The star can be empty or filled-in."
equis.com
still, even so, timing it well and following it closely, you could have shorted ARBA on july 20 at $ 135 (that day's high) and cover on july 31 at $ 102 (that day's low).
that's of course peanuts compared to what a long who entered at $ 50 at the most recent low and sold at $ 170 made.
but many don't sell and see their gains evaporate.
or many did exactly the opposite and entered at $ 150 in march and liquidated in a panic at $ 50 1/4 in april... so.
the only sure thing is that it's a very volatile stock, as all internet stocks are, and that there are NO sacred cows (check QCOM).
stockcharts.com[W,A]DACLYIMY[DB][PB20!B50!B200!F][VC60][IUB14!LG!LH14,3!LA12,26,9]
this is more art than science, as you all know, experience and a good feel helps, and never short based on valuation alone, or charts alone, because it's you against the blind euphoric crowd who can't get enough at any price.
wait til GREED turns into PANIC, and for added accuracy til RSI begins pointing lower.
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"As for shooting star, that you mentioned here...it doesn't always work. Just look at the evening star pattern on your chart started in week of 7/13..." |
