I've been reading through many of the past posts. However, I haven't seen PALM mentioned as a Gorilla candidate or even as an actual full-blown gorilla.
For those of you not up to date with PALM, here's the current story in a nutshell: PALM is the gorilla, Microsoft is the chimp, and Handspring is the monkey.
In OS, Palm OS has 83% market share, Microsoft's Win CE devices combined have less than 10%.
In units, Palm (PALM-OS) has 69%, Handspring (PALM-OS) 14%, and HP (WIN-CE) 8%.
allnetdevices.com
Palm licenses its OS other handheld makers, such as Sony and Handspring.
siliconinvestor.com
Not only do they control the enabling technology (the OS), but they also control the physical form of the PDA. The PALM device licensees must all have standardized screen sizes, screen resolutions and control mechanisms dictated by PALM. While they are still a small and vulnerable company, they can disclose advancing hardware specs to their licensees immediately. But once entrenched as the gorilla, they can withold specs until after their hardware unit hits the market. They hold a similar competitive advantage by controlling the OS as well. At the current time, their strategy is to court powerful allies without abusing their gorilla power. Could the allies revolt against the gorilla as the clone makers did to IBM way back when? That is still way off in the future.
They are expanding into the right areas: all future PALMs will have wireless internet access. Current Palm units are already hits with not only techie early adopters, but with visionary businessmen, and students. Palm handhelds are being considered for standard issue at some universities.
With all of the businessmen, many of whom are PC-phobic, who already own Palm organizers, can we consider PALM to have crossed the chasm?
With PALM's large market share percentage, and their large mind share percentage, and developers already hating Microsoft, is it possible for Microsoft to gain a foothold in this market? Is Microsoft a chimp or a gorilla candidate? Or will Microsoft eventually become the gorilla in this new market like they have done so many times before? Will there ever be a time we can rule out Microsoft as a gorilla candidate and declare them a chimp?
I think PALM has huge potential to be Microsoft-ian or Cisco-ian in 5-10 years. Their management executes like a gorilla who has learned all of the high-tech lessons of the past. They have an open proprietary system in Palm-OS, which they are licensing to many powerful allies such as Sony and Handspring. They have formed a venture group to form a 'Palm community' to seed startups who are developing software/hardware for the Palm system. siliconinvestor.com
The sky is the limit for PALM. They are a discontinous innovation for Microsoft. If my handheld connects me to the internet, is portable, boots immediately, and doesn't crash, and costs one tenth as much as the PC, then what am I using my PC for? An expensive typewriter? My largest concern is that Microsoft, being the great paranoid company that they are, knows this too, and will fire all its guns at PALM.
In 10 years, I can easily imagine a world where there are more handheld devices connecting to the internet than there are desktop computers. Many people in the world do not have access to an electrical outlet, much less access to a PC. However, a basic handheld can offer email, voice, and 486-level applications.
When the crew on Star Trek talk into their communicators and say, "Computer, tell me the location of Ensign Roe", this voice recognition computing and communication power must have an OS at its source! And besides that, there are those handhelds that they always pass around for their reports and personal email.
Why should I ever remember a phone number again if my PDA remembers it and is connected to the net? What do I need a phone number for if I always carry around a PDA that can store phone mail and email and knows who I am?
IMO, handhelds have the potential to bring many discontinous innovations and tornados into the world. Is PALM going to be the gorilla in the midst (sorry for the pun!)? I can't see anyone else right now, so it must be yes!
El Guapo |
