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Strategies & Market Trends : Z Best Place to Talk Stocks
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To: Jeff Jordan who wrote (24224)9/10/2000 9:17:15 AM
From: Ron McKinnon  Read Replies (1) of 53068
 
copied from another thread
very much in line with my thinking for the moment
---------------------------

Here's a snippet from today's Option Investor newsletter on what to expect through the next few weeks:
The outlook does not look good. The lack of confidence in the
market coupled with the huge amounts of cash on the sidelines
has the market primed to produce ulcers. Volatility is increasing
and the alternating 100 point days we had last fall are returning.
Each major drop like Friday's sets us up for a trading rally and
then another drop. There are too many sellers dumping good stocks
to expect that Friday was a bottom. The extreme short positions
by institutional traders are still growing. This, coupled with
the expected October drop is scaring investors and prompting them
to stay on the sidelines. The majority of the earnings warnings
are still ahead of us and we will probably see lower numbers
soon.

The coming weeks will test your trading ability and quickness
in entering and exiting positions. The Nasdaq is likely to be
range bound with large intraday swings. As each warning appears
the stocks in that sector will be guilty by association and
drop accordingly. Hopefully we will reach a point soon where
traders will feel all the bad news is priced into the market
and they will start bottom fishing for tech stocks. We all know
how powerful tech rebounds can be. We can trade these rebounds
but with October in our immediate future we need to trade these
rebounds like hit and run bandits. Sometime in the next 50 days
the market will form a bottom and the fall rally will emerge.
The Fed is on hold, the soft landing is here and oil prices
will eventually fall. The outlook is outstanding we just do
not know the start date yet. The October low in 1999 was on
the 18th, 1998 on the 8th and in 1997 on the 28th. There is
no convincing pattern other than October produced the low point
in the fourth quarter for the last five years. 1994 was the
last year that saw lower numbers after October. Getting from
here to October is the challenge.
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