As I mentioned, I came over here looking at this as a short. I've enjoyed the discussions from both sides. Spy's arguments seemed well reasoned and I'm close to convinced. I may miss the move, but I always learn for the next one. FWIW, I usually leave when I see the "short this pig" or "POS" posts, just as I leave when I see the "to the moon" hypesters. It really doesn't matter what someone claims to be in at and I think we usually do a dis-service to good discussion by claiming ex post facto entry points. (Sometimes I'm guilty of the same thing and I spank myself LOL.) I.e., it looks like a boast so the natural tendency is to say, "you're bs."
I also have to say that there have been some good long arguments so I'd like to posit this for a response: ARBA seems like a good/great company with a great future. However, it seems to me that the future 5 years (almost infinity in internet terms) are discounted with this market cap. Big caps, big p/s, huge p/s don't necessarily scare me. I'm in, inter alia, NT. However, this one seems so large compared to results for the next couple of years that I am inclined to go with Spy's arguments. The charts, IMO, can always be read in at least 2 ways, not to denigrate them but my most convincing chartists friends are always right after the fact. Before the fact, they're no better than anyone else.
Finally, SPY - now tough to get a borrow and at which broker? Thanks. |
