Hello Sam,
I suspect the majority of Nor flash coming on line by Intc, AMD, Atmel etcetera that the Web-Fleet Research paper refers to is for higher density flash than the real low density NOR flash that SSTI targets. SSTI says they hardly see these players in their niche anymore and I believe them. These other players do not appear to be able get the same profit margins that SSTI can on low density flash. Ostensibly this is due to the "Superflash advantage".
Here is a recent snip from a 8/28/00 CSFB report available at Schwab on PDF format:
The majority of the Flash manufacturers in the market, however, are increasingly
moving upstream to the higher average selling price (ASP) high-density Flash.
There is a large amount of Flash capacity that is being ramped in the market
right now by Intel, AMD, STMicroelectronics, Atmel, and a slew of Japanese
suppliers. Most of that capacity, however, is dedicated to high density NOR or
NAND Flash. SST has positioned itself to benefit from serving this low-density
niche and estimates a tripling of unit shipments in 2000 (up from doubling in
1999), coupled with continuing price increases. The company is even being fairly
conservative with its price increases in its attempts to firmly entrench itself
with its customer base and become the market share leader in the low-density
arena.
We are raising our September quarter revenue, margin and EPS
estimates to $144.4 million, 46% and $0.29, from $129.1, 44.7% and $0.25,
respectively. Our new 2000 revenue and EPS estimates increase to $490.5 million
and $1.00, respectively, from $456.1 and $0.90, while 2001 increases to $1.0
billion and $1.90 from $850.2 and $1.50, respectively.
Gotta love the steady earnings upgrades SSTI is getting!!
Best, Huey |
