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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: Uncle Frank who started this subject	9/11/2000 9:39:55 AM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (2) of 54805

I realize I'm coming late to the party when it comes to discussing the CDMA Development Group's report of world-wide subscriptions released while I was away, so I hope some of you will stifle your yawns when I mention that ... 1) In June 1999, there were 7% fewer subs added than in the previous quarter. This year there were 20% more subs added than in the previous quarter. 2) In June 1999, there were 76% more subs added than in the year-earlier quarter. This year there were 69% more subs added than in the year-earlier quarter. Over the previous three quarters that last figure had declined from 94% in September to 28% in December and 30% in March. The rapid change from about 30% in each of the two previous reports to 69% in the most recent period is a pleasant surprise. 3) Growth of total subscriptions compared to the year-earlier quarter had consistently and rather precipitously declined from 276% in September, 1998, to 101% in March, 2000. That the most recent quarter was 96% suggests a dramatic reduction in the rapid descent and is another pleasant surprise, especially because it keeps the year-to-year growth definitely in the range of triple digits. Prior to release of the numbers, I was expecting a continuing trend of previous numbers leading to the further expectation that we would feel comfortable pronouncing the first CDMA tornado to be over. With this pleasant surprise, I'm not willing to do that. Despite TinkerShaw's current thinking on the Fool thread that the tornado died in less than one year after coming to the conclusion that it never occurred because the product hasn't crossed the chasm, my thinking is that the tornado winds continue to whip (albeit at about the slowest rate allowing us to call it a tornado) in their 27th month. --Mike Buckley

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