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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: Mike Buckley who wrote (31433)	9/11/2000 10:19:26 AM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (1) of 54805

Mike, << I was expecting a continuing trend of previous numbers leading to the further expectation that we would feel comfortable pronouncing the first CDMA tornado to be over >> On a calendar basis end of year we will see 80% YOPY + or - 5%. Next year with a much larger base, we are likely to see lower (but not necessarily, if China kicks in and Korea holds we might see about 80% again). We won't see 100% YOY again, after end of year, or at least after Q1 01, IMO. It is my opinion that Q1 this year took a big hit from prepaid adjustments. Prepaid plans availability increased significantly last year to previous year. I give you a a phone with prepaid plan for Christmas. You leave it in the drawer. You don't renew the prepaid plan within 90 days. Scratch 1 sub (it may be half a sub and it may be other than 90 days but thats how adjustments are made). I think thats how we got hit. If the Korean subsidy ban had not hit, we might have seen continued 100% YOY by year end. When Qualcomm's fiscal ends and the numbers are out, key numbers to listen for are handset sales for this fiscal, and projections of handset sales for next fiscal. I think this number is a better metric than net subscriber growth, although net subscriber growth is easier to get at. It is unfortunate, but subscribers are reported as net adds. I bought 2 new cdma devices this year. My golfing partner bought 2. Zero net adds. Replacement sales really on the upswing and hard to plot against subscriber adds, for us amateurs. << tornado winds ... in their 27th month >> I have that as 33 months or more through June. <g> CDMA subs doubled Q4, 97. - Eric -

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