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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates
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To: Mike Buckley who wrote (31441)9/11/2000 2:03:51 PM
From: Eric L  Read Replies (1) of 54805
 
Re: QCOM - CDMA - Worldwide Subscriber Growth Update

EMC (for GSMA) has just posted subscribers (all technologies) through August:

gsmworld.com

EMC's numbers when posted this early are not audited actuals. They did not adjust Q2 CDMA ending numbers from 67.1 M to CDG's 65 for instance. They are still the most credible numbers available, but their is some educated SWAG here.

Here is the way they have the subscribers through August:

GSM = 361.7
CDMA = 72.0
PDC = 48.8
TDMA = 54.3
Total Digital Subscribers = 536.8
Total Analogue Subscribers = 76.8

================================
MOBILE WIRELESS SUBSCRIBER STATS
================================
Through end August 2000

Total Worldwide Subscribers (millions)

536.8 = digital (excludes ESMR)
76.8 = analog

612.8 = total mobile wireless (excludes ESMR)

CDMA = 11.75% of all (up)

CDMA = 13.41% of digital (down)
=====
CDMA Subscribers/Growth

End of 1996 = < 1
End of 1997 = 7.8 = + 680%
End of 1998 = 23. = + 194%
End of 1999 = 50. = + 118%
End of 2000 = 90 million + (my estimate) = + 80%

(Note: as late as mid June CDG was projecting 100 million subs year end. If they are correct, annual growth for 2000 will be 100%). CDG unfortunately has a propensity to over forecast, however, unlike GSMA who always underforecasts. GSM estimated 378.6 subs year end at beginning of year. TDMA-EDGE estimated 62 million.

The fastest growing technology YTD remains the (deservedly) maligned IS-136 TDMA (TDMA-EDGE) technology. When the numbers are all in, I suspect this will show a widening gap between CDMA & TDMA in LA.

GSM: 271 to 361.7 subs = + 33.5.1%

CDMA: 50 to 72.0 subs = + 40 %

TDMA: 35.1 to 54.3 subs = + 54.7% (widening gap if accurate).

Important Note: UWCC has not yet reported audited numbers for Q2 yet, much less last 2 months.

This could be a horse race for "bragging rights" for annual growth amongst technologies.

This won't last long. TDMA-EDGE is a 2 trick pony (LA & NA).

We will not see audited results for the year from the associations till March 2001. EMC will show pretty reasonable at the GSM World Congress in Cannes in late February, and will sneak out some pretty reasonable estimates late November at the GSM in North America Conference.

- Eric -
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