G'day Maurice-
<As investors, we need to know whether, when the true body count is in, it will be enough to cause a political or technological or lawsuit problem.>
Science has not yet done its job? Maybe not quite, but just how much should we expect science to do? The reality of our litigious society makes your point almost moot. It can’t do the whole job because society doesn't want it to.
Just look at the case of ionizing radiation. No other carcinogen has been more widely studied. Years of intensive study at the molecular, cellular, organism and population (epidemiological) level have failed to show a causal relationship below a certain dose level (about 10 rem, although the relationship is well quantifiable above that dose). Yet there have been many cases of juries awarding large amounts to cancer-stricken 'victims' because their employers allowed them to get exposed, even though the doses were below (science-based) legal limits.
In this country, we even have something called “probability of causation”, where an award can be made based on the likelihood of the causal effect, even if it is below the detectable threshold.
We should expect science to do only so much. Beyond that, we need to use reason (based on what IQ still remains after the lead exposures. As a kid, I used to chew lead sinkers. That explains it!) We do not have infinite dollars and hours to throw at the problem, and there is no guarantee we’d find the answers even if we did. So you do the experiments and you lower the detection limits, but the line of liability keeps retreating ahead of the detection limit, being pushed by social and political factors.
With regard to cell phones, I think we need to look a little harder at the potential risks, but I don’t think we should disillusion ourselves that science will provide the ultimate answer. We already know the risks, if any, are low. As you said, there are clearly benefits to using cell phones (although we aren’t quite sure how to quantify them), so hopefully society will recognize that benefits plus minimal risk = OK.
So now, given that, let's see if CDMA phones can at least achieve a comparative advantage. Based on published SAR values for existing phones, I'd say that advantage is not yet as great as it should be.
Rich
P.S. I don't think your single-photon-breaks-the-camel's-back theory deserves the Nobel Prize just yet. I believe it's awarded more often for discoveries than theories. |
