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Technology Stocks : Akamai (AKAM)
AKAM 89.44-1.4%Nov 26 3:59 PM EST
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To: .Trev who wrote (523)9/11/2000 5:07:57 PM
From: Wizard  Read Replies (1) of 695
 
Here is the math:

58mm shares are technically off of legal lock-up
~50% of these are owned by management
~50% of these are owned by venture capitalists

Management has indicated they will sell 5-10% of their holdings over the next few months. So that calculation is (29mm * .1) = ~2.9mm shares

VC's are unlikely to distribute even 50% over near term. Assuming 1/3 is distributed, that calulation = (29mm * .34) = ~9.8mm shares...

ok, so about 13mm shares will be sold over next few months. The stock has been averaging 2mm shares of volume per day and this number is sure to increase as institutions absorb some of the shares.

Lets say we have 5 days of volume to deal with - this is not that big a deal compared to many other lock-up releases. If it were trading 75k per day, then yes this would be a big deal but 5 days of volume is nothing special.

I smell a short squeeze come Wednesday mid-morning. But even if trading is orderly with no big move either way, we are very near AKAM's ultimate low, IMO. My guess is that the September 30 close will be well north of $63. More importantly, my guess is that 12/31/01 close is well above $200.

Time to investigate some calls to be purchased Wed (mid morning). Hopefully, the stock goes to $40 or $50 on an order imbalance near the open.
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