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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor

GDXJ 97.67

+5.0%

Nov 10 4:00 PM EST

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To: zx who wrote (58043)	9/11/2000 9:21:35 PM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Read Replies (1) of 116753

The biggest argument for gold is imho oil and energy prices. Anyone visiting the SI-Strictly Drilling thread will see rather quickly that $40 oil is far more likely near term and this winter vs $30 let alone $25. Subject 12099 In a nutshell... 1) OPEC's is almost at capacity. In 1973 they had plenty of capacity they simply choked back. 2000 is both a supply and a demand issue. 2) Lack of tankers to ship oil (97% capacity) 3) Lack of refining capacity to create products (heating oil, gasoline) 4) Natural gas prices expected to stay strong due to limited supplies and high electrical usage spurred by internet economy 5) Majors and OPEC were crushed by $12 oil. Only now are they starting to spend more to increase production. For the first 6 months of the year production in the US was down .5%. 6) The little extra capacity that OPEC does have is "sour" or heavy blends. Not much use for refining purposes. 7) Past winters have been warmer than usual. Even a normal winter would cause shortages (OPEC's own words). Forecast so far is colder than last year. The market and techs can ignore $35 oil saying that we're in a 'new' economy (laughable), but I think if/when oil hits $40 it'll be a wake up call that get the attention of the average investor and make him defensive (oil/gold plays). Techs are entirely momentum driven and it won't take much to break them down again. Also just like interest rates I believe the effects of high energy costs take time to ripple through the economy. In 1973 although the spike in crude was short lived the effects lingered on for many years afterwards. Lastly, gold is near historic lows. I'm willing to take a gamble at these levels. I see little downside. If I'm wrong I sit on dead money for a while...big deal.

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