Elmatdor:
You make several good points, and in particular I like the one about keeping your management system intact by upgrading instead of replacing. That is VERY important to providers.
If the network proceeds to expand by upgrading the end equipment, instead of replacing it in the core, this means we can keep Sonet/ATM semi stocks: PCMS, TXCC, VTSS, and the like, for a while.
But what does this mean to the fiber components companies: Lucent, Nortel, Alacet, JDS Uniphase, Corning, and ADC? (the six largest, in order).
I have an anecdote. A friend works for a small candy manufacturing (200 people) company in New England. He was hired as head of the IT department, in a month he noted that they were being charged over $0.10 per minute! by a large carrier. He figured he needed ~4 data and 5 voice channels, and good rates for long distance. He found several alternate carriers, one of whom offered to install a fiber connection for free. I understand that the local ILEC had to install it for almost nothing, so the CLEC didn't care much about instllation, but they had to have the proper termination equipment at both ends.
The point is, if small low tech companies are getting fiber, then the Metro may roll out. My only problem is I don't understand the business case for this CLEC? Are the betting that in the future candy manufacturing will be IP based. That production workers will stay at home and video conference to their workstations? Or is fiber now just as low cost as fractional T1 and you might as well sow it now,
and reap what you can in the future. The fiber will carry voice, but will it be VOIP, VOATM, or SONET or what?
If they are putting fiber in what happens to HDSL, or DSL, or cable as SOHO providers?
Lacking an understanding of the fiber business case, I guess that the answer will be based on whichever technology can be managed by the service provider instead of the company (companies love to outsource functions that are not part of the core business). ATM to the enterprise?
justone opinion |
