POLL RELEASES
September 12, 2000
Presidential Race Remains Tight
About one-fourth of all voters not firmly committed to any candidate
by David W. Moore
GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- The latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup tracking poll shows Al Gore receiving 49% support among likely voters, while George W. Bush receives 42%. This seven-point gap is just within the poll's margin of error, suggesting that the presidential race remains very close. The poll also shows that Ralph Nader receives 3% support and Patrick Buchanan 1%.
Since the end of the Democratic convention in mid-August, Gallup polls have shown the two major candidates drawing about the same level of support, with the gap between them fluctuating between a one-point lead for Bush to the current seven-point lead for Gore. The average results over the past week, since the beginning of the tracking poll, show Gore leading Bush by 47% to 43%, with 3% for Nader and 1% for Buchanan. Another 1% say they will vote for some other candidate, and 4% say they have not decided which candidate they will support.
One in Four Voters Still Uncertain About November Vote
Despite the low "undecided" vote noted above, the poll suggests that some of the "decided" voters might well change their minds before Election Day. Among all likely voters, 39% say there is no chance they would vote for anyone but Gore, and an additional 10% who now say they support Gore admit that they could change their minds and vote for Bush in November. Similarly, 34% of all likely voters say there is no chance they would support anyone but Bush, and 8% who now say they support Bush admit they could end up voting for Gore.
Taken together with the voters who are currently uncommitted, these results indicate that about a quarter of all voters have not firmly made up their minds about which candidate they will support in the November election.
Gore's Image as Potential President Improves
One of Gore's major problems has been that many Americans did not see him as presidential material. For most of this year, until the Democratic convention, just about half the public said he has "the personality and leadership qualities a president should have." Since the convention, however, that proportion has risen to 62%.
By contrast, Bush was initially perceived very favorably by the public on this dimension, with about two-thirds of Americans saying he has those presidential qualities. However, since the Democratic convention, the proportion of voters with that opinion has dropped to 57% -- giving Gore a slight edge on a dimension that had been dominated by Bush for most of the past year.
Survey Methods
Results are based on telephone interviews with -- 1,216 -- National Adults, aged 18+, conducted September 8-10, 2000. For results based on the total sample of National Adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points.
Results based on likely voters are based on the subsample of -- 727 -- survey respondents deemed most likely to vote in the November 2000 general election, according to a series of questions measuring current voting intentions and past voting behavior. For results based on the total sample of Likely Voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points.
gallup.com |
