Wireless data users to reach 8 billion, or whatever 100% of the world population is, by 2020. Just as television and analog voice phones are reaching the poorest places on the planet, the same thing will happen with wireless data. An enterprising person in a rural Indian village (with a per capita income well below 1000$/year), will buy a data-phone, and sell access to the rest of the village. Then, another person will buy a second device, costs will decline due to competition, and so on. And, in wealthy countries, everyone will have multiple devices. That's my WAG.
But, short-term (less than 3 years), the picture is cloudy. There is a very real possibility that (other than test markets), the whole 3G buildout could happen a year or two later than everyone thinks. The telcos are hurting, funding for capital improvements is drying up, the U.S. economy is slowing. Until this whole WCDMA/CDMA2000/TDSCDMA turf war gets settled, telcos may be very reluctant to bet the firm, investing on infrastructure for a technology standard that may be abandoned. And, even if companies are willing to bet the firm, the funding may not be there. When INTC and TXN are hurting, it's time to lighten up on AMAT. When FON and T are hurting, it's time to lighten up on..........(you fill in the blank).
The vast majority of posters think this stock will be doubling, from current levels, over the next 12 months. They may be right. But there is a not-small chance that this stock could be dead money for the next 12 months. If that happens, a lot of posters will get discouraged and sell. I hope posters here (and, even more so, the unmoderated threads), are not representative of QCOM investors. It's not really going to be safe, holding this stock, until most investors are prepared to sit on dead money for at least a year. I'm not saying that is going to happen (I hope not, since I'm long the stock), but it could, and I think few of us are prepared for it.
JS@asplashoficewaterinyourface.com |
