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Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets
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To: Paul Berliner who wrote (2579)9/12/2000 2:33:51 PM
From: Henry Volquardsen  Read Replies (2) of 3536
 
Paul,

I don't disagree. I was just discussing a hypothetical on a simple two dimensional model. In the context of the original post the only variable was price. A given was that at some point price increases would prompt use of alternative fuels and part of the question was whether producers were therefore trying to avoid price increases.

I agree that a shift to alternative fuels will be a much more complex scenario.

Great innovations often prove unprofitable unless there's signs of strong demand for them.
I would elaborate on that by saying that in order to create the strong demand the innovations often needs to be a significant advance in functionality and/or a significant cost saving. Lacking that inertia will keep most tied to the old technology.

To me, it is clear that oil distillates and natural gas will remain #1 indefinitely, regardless of price volatilty.
probably right. and in that regard we may be gettin ourselves in a bit of trouble. Two decades of flat or declining energy costs have made us complacent about the availability of energy. In that context we have shut in large areas of potential reserves because of environmental concerns. Off shore drilling along the California and Florida coasts are two areas I am thinking of. Meanwhile global energy demand continues to grow.

Henry
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