Palm vs MSFT - Gorilla and King, or Gorilla and Chimp?
This debate got me to thinking about another book that may speak to the PALM phenomenon and its future. It is The Innovator's Dilemma by Clayton Christensen (CC). I think that the PALM vs. Microsoft story might be better viewed from the perspective of CC's disruptive technology.
In many ways MSFT (I use and value their software) were a classic case of "overshooting" the mainstream market. At least the market for small, easily portable "computer."
Just like the classic disruptive innovators CC talks about, PALM designed a simple(r) machine that did (comparatively) minimal things very well. While the PALM wasn't (and isn't) "cheap," it is a lot less expensive than a portable computer running Windows. MSFT has answered by trying to "downscale" their "overshoot", i.e., Windows CE.
As a pure piece of software, WinCE may be very good. It does not matter. If it is in a disruptive technology game, it is playing the losing hand. It may be the winning hand, or a successful hand in another game; but not in a disruptive technology game.
So, if PALM (the software and the form factor) is a disruptive innovation, it needs to keep doing what it is doing and not trying to do what MSFT has already excelled at.
One last thought, Gilder has referred to QCOM's CDMA as the ultimate disruptive innovation. Assuming he knows what he is talking about, it could make the eventual full-blown union (not merger, but union) of CDMA and PALM one of the most powerful disruptors to ever hit the economy.
All FWIW. |
